Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
